On Thursday 19 February, Prof Tony Haymet addressed the 2026 Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Conference in Hobart. 

Always nice to be back in Nipaluna (Hobart) and to acknowledge the Traditional Owners – the Muwinina people – and pay my respects to their Elders past and present.

About 23 years ago, I worked here in Hobart as chief of CSIRO’s Marine Research, then Marine and Atmospheric Research. 
 

May I also give my thanks to AMOS for inviting me to speak at a second consecutive summit, and this time kindly offering me a much less rowdy venue than my evening appearance last year at a craft brewery in Cairns.  

I’m always excited to learn about the advances of your members’ work, even if the tidings are not always good ones. 

I’m here today wearing two hats...  in my role as Australia’s Chief Scientist and also as a member of the Climate Change Authority, representing its Chair, Matt Kean.

Matt convened an important climate science and modelling roundtable in Canberra last Friday... more on that later... 

First let me describe a tale of scientific advancement. It’s one that underscores the importance of your work to all Australians and the great necessity for ongoing research. It’s also a tale that shows how important it is to find ways to communicate scientific findings to the public and to policymakers. 

Last September, Australian researchers and weather forecasters – some of you here today - would have watched on with a mix of awe and interest as an unexpected event was taking place some 40 kilometres above Antarctica.  

The usually frigid polar vortex was heating up to about 35 degrees Celsius above normal in what’s dubbed a sudden stratospheric warming.  

I am told such events happen about every two years over the North Pole, but they are quite rare over the icy continent. Sudden stratospheric warming is linked to extreme mid-latitude weather, and that’s what Australia witnessed in subsequent months on this occasion. The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal forecast – previously favouring the odds for a wet spring in a La Nina year – shifted to a drier outlook. 

Stronger westerly winds then added to drought conditions in southern Australia, primed the bush to burn, and increased the likelihood of the record-breaking heatwaves that we endured in January. Farmers, firefighters and regional communities are among those with a visceral stake in detecting phenomena such as stratospheric warming events. 

And in fact, we should all want to know how climate change will affect these events in the future because the impacts will be so wide-ranging... affecting all Australians – their health, their housing, their jobs, their communities. Marine heatwaves are already fuelling destructive algal blooms, bleaching our coral reefs, supercharging storms, and threatening coastal eco-systems that have sustained communities and industries for generations.

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That we could detect this sudden stratospheric warming over a remote part of the world at all is an illustration of how far science has advanced in recent decades. Measurements made at Australia’s Macquarie Island and Davis Station in Antarctica played a vital role, as did satellites observing changes in atmospheric ozone.  

The processing and modelling of that data at home and abroad underscore how we rely on a global network for our weather and climate predictions. 

This intricate climate intelligence eco-system is not one we can take for granted. We must make plans, and back-up plans, to ensure this eco-system is sustained and enhanced. By doing so, we can help protect Australian families and industries from the worst impacts of climate change.  

With that in mind, Matt Kean, the chair of the Climate Change Authority, convened the special climate science and modelling roundtable last Friday in Canberra. 

While I was unable to attend due to a prior ministerial engagement, I know the roundtable brought together senior officials and researchers from across our science-to-service supply chain. 

We had people well-versed in the science, the data, the climate modelling, the infrastructure of super computing, and a range of end-users from the public and private sectors. 

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I mentioned the sudden stratospheric warming event – and its impact on Australian weather – because it’s one of many climate examples that are both a warning and an opportunity. 

They highlight the pervasive impact of climate change and, at the same time, they remind us that we must maintain and enhance our capacity to observe the planet. 

They remind us of the ongoing need to collect, process and understand the data … the need to improve our predictive models … and the need to convey the information to the many potential users. 

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Climate intelligence is significant national infrastructure that your work directly contributes to. Enormous progress has been made in climate science but there is far to go, and there will be far-reaching implications.

The data that you gather, and work with, contributes not just to climate modelling, but to decisions that can improve our economy, agriculture and health outcomes, defence planning and disaster preparedness. As such, climate data is an enabling asset across society, government and the economy.

I echo the view of our chair, Matt Kean, that you can’t have good economic modelling without a good approximation of the risks of global warming, depending on how emissions play out.

I won’t say much more about the roundtable ... there are other speakers here today who were at the gathering, and I don’t want to steal their thunder. But I do want to touch on one topic it discussed that will be of interest to many of you: high-performance computing and data, and its role in climate science.

I’m pleased to inform you that Australia’s high-performance computing and data needs are currently being examined by the nation’s top science advisory body to the Prime Minister. 

The Minister for Science has asked the National Science and Technology Council to provide advice on Australia’s future research needs in this area. 

Incidentally, I understand there’s a workshop at this conference focussing on developing a National High Performance Computing and Data Roadmap for Climate Science in Australia. 

Now, you don’t need a supercomputer to know there’s a lot to take into account when considering what the high-performance computing and data landscape could and should look like in the coming decade.  

I'm not here today to pre-empt the council's advice. But I do want to briefly spotlight some of the key questions and issues that are shaping conversations about this technology.

Recent discussions in Australia’s scientific community raise legitimate concerns about whether our digital infrastructure in this area can keep pace with existing and projected demand.

There are concerns about infrastructure that is fragmented, ageing, or not structured for emerging needs in some areas.
These are healthy discussions that help to clarify issues by raising questions about the allocation of resources. 

At a global level, the benchmark for computing capability continues to rise.

Countries and regions – including Europe, Japan, China, the USA and Singapore – are making large investments in high-performance computing.

But this does not mean Australia should simply match their spending.

Like all nations, Australia has finite budget resources. The question is not whether to invest in this technology, but how to make strategic, pragmatic, clear-eyed choices that maximise the benefits to our nation.

You work in scientific disciplines defined by data. And as our computing power grows, our data capability must grow with it. If our data storage capacity lags behind our computing power, this can create bottlenecks that undermine research. 

In a country as big as Australia, we must also carefully consider questions about connectivity and the location of our facilities.
We are a large nation with dispersed infrastructure and very large data-sets, particularly in areas like climate, astronomy and resources. 

When it comes to the marriage of supercomputing and data facilities, co-locating them can be an important consideration. It can reduce the cost and difficulty of massive data transfers and can reduce latency in computer processing. 

On the other hand, high-speed, high-volume networks can also be deployed to efficiently connect data storage to computing systems. 

And in some cases, it’s a matter of bringing the computing system to the data storage location – rather than the other way around.

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Regardless of how the data is stored and managed, that data is the very bedrock of climate science and the scientific information that enriches our nation.

But in 2026 Australia faces a rising tide of misinformation dressed as science.

Artificial intelligence and social media are turbo-charging its spread. I know many of you are concerned about that, and I want to touch briefly on it today. 

Australia’s top science advisory body to the Prime Minister – the National Science and Technology Council I mentioned earlier – has commissioned landmark reports on misinformation. 

They show we can be vulnerable to it because of the way our brains are wired. Research finds humans are naturally inclined to believe new information – especially if it’s simple, familiar, or comes from people we trust. The more we see it, the more credible it seems, even if it’s false. 

Poor physical or mental health can also reduce cognitive capacity, increasing susceptibility to falsehoods.

These falsehoods are a global challenge – especially so in science. And your work, and your data, can be part of a global response to addressing this challenge and combating misinformation.

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I would like to conclude with some final observations about the value of climate science for Australia, and how we might best act on the knowledge you generate.  

Your work has never been more important – because, sadly, Australia now finds itself in hot water. And that’s not a metaphor. It’s the scientific reality of our rapidly warming oceans. 

The climate crisis is reshaping life across the nation, from our oceans to our insurance premiums, and it’s going to get worse both in Australia and across the world. But we can avoid the harshest impacts by making deep global emissions cuts. Australia has great scientists – like you – and is a wealthy country with the resources to address these challenges. 

Reducing emissions, tonne by tonne, is the most effective way to meet our climate targets. 

At the same time, we must foster the work of those in the climate sciences.  And strive to ensure your discoveries – about sudden stratospheric warming, for example – are brought to widespread public attention. By doing so, your work can inform Australia’s decisions across all levels of government, businesses and society more broadly.

So, I encourage you to be bold in your science, and perhaps bolder in the communication of your important findings. 

Thank you.